高资本充足率一定有助于银行体系稳定吗——基于房地产调控的视角

当银行面对房地产价格冲击试图保持一定的资本充足率时,较轻的冲击就可能导致银行不稳定成为一种自我实现的结果,而当银行不维持最低资本充足率时,较为严重的房地产价格下跌才有可能导致银行的不稳定,可见,高资本充足率在一定程度上反而增加了银行体系的不稳定性。在特殊情况下,适当降低银行的资本充足率或补充资本、降低法定存款准备金率等增加银行体系流动性的政策可能是有益的。     

What do scientists know about inflation hedging?

In this article, we give an overview of the state of scientific knowledge on inflation hedging. Specifically, we distill the results of several decades of research analysing the relationship between major asset classes (common stocks, gold, fixed income securities, real estate) and inflation. Even though previous studies have brought forth important facts characterising the interplay of asset returns and inflation rates (e.g., time-dependency, asymmetry, outlier-sensitivity and a tendency towards long-term but limited short-term inflation protection), there is still no consensus on the subject because sample, data and methodology issues preclude strict comparison of most studies. Thus, from a synthesis of the insights gained from our review, we also outline possible directions for future research that may help to establish consensus among researchers.     

我国房地产交易中存在的道德风险及其治理

本文用信息经济学理论分析了我国房地产交易中开发商、中介机构可能存在的道德风险及其带来的负面影响,在此基础上,分别从开发商、政府、购房者以及中介机构四个角度提出了治理房地产交易中道德风险的方法和措施。     

Determining the optimal dimension of a work-in-process storage area

We study the problem of determining the optimal dimension of a work-in-process storage area in a two-line production system with delays and breakdowns. We propose a stochastic model and prove theoretical results that allow us to implement an exact algorithm for the solution of the model. We optimally solve a real instance and carry out a sensitivity analysis to evaluate if the optimal solution is stable when the initial data are perturbed.     

Firm adoption of international standards: evidence from the Ethiopian floriculture sector

Global trade in agriculture and food products is increasingly governed by an array of standards. In order to continue exporting, developing countries have little choice but to comply with the new requirements. This study uses a census based panel data set from the nascent floriculture industry in Ethiopia to empirically examine the determinants of firms’ adoption of international private standards in fresh horticulture produce in large‐scale estate farms. The econometric analysis shows that larger size, older, and foreign owned firms are more likely to adopt the private standards. Moreover, this study analyzes the overall industry level efforts and public–private partnership to launch and implement a national scheme GAP and build a firm's capacity to comply with the standards.     

预测与对策:未来中国房地产价格走势分析——以成都市为例

全球金融危机对中国房地产价格影响很大,通过对一系列影响因素的分析,发现这一时期人们的心理预期是所有影响因素中最为敏感的因素,能严重影响中国房地产价格。研究表明,四川省成都市的房地产价格走势与全国房地产价格走势接近,因而能够以该城市的房地产价格作为研究样本,在各种心理预期量化的基础上,预测出未来三年中国房地产价格并提出了相应的政策建议。     

投资者情绪与中国上市公司实际投资

本文运用行为公司金融理论,针对中国股票市场特殊的市场环境、制度背景提出可检验假设,验证由投资者情绪导致的股票错误定价对我国上市公司实际投资的影响.通过划分样本区间在市场反转的框架下分析主导机制和迎合机制的作用,运用PVAR模型研究主动融资机制的作用,得出如下主要结论:(1)在中国股票市场反转时期迎合机制起着主导作用;(2)上市公司更多的出于操纵的目的迎合投资者强烈的情绪进行实际投资,对最大化流通股股东短期收益考虑的并不多;(3)中国股票市场仍然存在主动融资机制,对于高流通市值公司尤为突出.但现行投、融资行政审批制度的政策约束会造成股票定价偏高--低成本发行新股融资--实际投资上升的传导时滞.     

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 470–488.     

供应链延迟战略价值定量分析——蒙特卡罗下的奇异期权估价

对延迟战略建立两阶段决策模型，分半成品有无残值两种情况，从实物期权的视角运用金融学中期权定价理论对延迟战略的期权价值进行分析。将生产商传统生产方式下的收益类比为购买标的证券的收益，采用延迟战略的收益类比为标的于该证券的期权收益，并假设产品价格随机游走。通过分析发现延迟战略的收益相当于奇异期权的回报，并且半成品没有残值是存在残值的特殊情况。进一步运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法定量地对延迟战略的期权价值进行参数分析和成本一收益分析。文章将动态的风险管理和对灵活性价值的度量引入决策过程，研究结论能给延迟战略投资决策提供借鉴。